{
  "experiment": "Equal-variance AR(1) spectral-regime benchmark",
  "window": 96,
  "modwt_levels": 4,
  "train_paths": 30,
  "test_paths": 120,
  "segments_per_path": 9,
  "segment_length_range": [
    288,
    480
  ],
  "regimes": {
    "Persistent": 0.75,
    "Uncorrelated": 0.0,
    "Alternating": -0.75
  },
  "train_seed": 20260806,
  "test_seed": 20260807,
  "bootstrap_seed": 20260808,
  "bootstrap_draws": 4000,
  "transition_confirmation": {
    "span": 10,
    "required_target_labels": 8
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "method": "Rolling variance",
      "balanced_accuracy": 0.3755451821818569,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_low": 0.36228030872172906,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_high": 0.3880987405696789,
      "transition_hit_rate": 0.571875,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_low": 0.5489583333333333,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_high": 0.5937760416666668,
      "median_delay": 9.0,
      "median_delay_ci_low": 4.0,
      "median_delay_ci_high": 15.0,
      "false_switches_per_1000": 47.17312711249421,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 45.508054705650956,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 48.83910185679235,
      "all_switches_per_1000": 46.259536159235616,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 44.77179958616924,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 47.86012780614242
    },
    {
      "method": "Lag-1 autocorrelation",
      "balanced_accuracy": 0.9999069039649748,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_low": 0.99979631380425,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_high": 0.9999865244285686,
      "transition_hit_rate": 0.9989583333333333,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_low": 0.996875,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_high": 1.0,
      "median_delay": 52.0,
      "median_delay_ci_low": 51.0,
      "median_delay_ci_high": 54.0,
      "false_switches_per_1000": 0.05495011005983765,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 0.01659622024404992,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 0.1030553180637628,
      "all_switches_per_1000": 3.955467495597058,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 3.8129299011254334,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 4.104919726431315
    },
    {
      "method": "Fourier band shares",
      "balanced_accuracy": 0.9737019164786354,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_low": 0.9706959262128911,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_high": 0.9767601846159022,
      "transition_hit_rate": 0.9979166666666667,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_low": 0.9947916666666666,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_high": 1.0,
      "median_delay": 46.0,
      "median_delay_ci_low": 45.0,
      "median_delay_ci_high": 47.0,
      "false_switches_per_1000": 2.550518908518155,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 2.302058988229743,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 2.7908099336061203,
      "all_switches_per_1000": 5.186303432406606,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 4.979982207986079,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 5.394730946717319
    },
    {
      "method": "Haar MODWT shares",
      "balanced_accuracy": 0.998264872751336,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_low": 0.9975875585449024,
      "balanced_accuracy_ci_high": 0.9988615491694672,
      "transition_hit_rate": 0.9989583333333333,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_low": 0.996875,
      "transition_hit_rate_ci_high": 1.0,
      "median_delay": 48.0,
      "median_delay_ci_low": 46.0,
      "median_delay_ci_high": 49.0,
      "false_switches_per_1000": 0.708924099440583,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 0.5369957768121644,
      "false_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 0.9078637888220012,
      "all_switches_per_1000": 5.2488636280466965,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_low": 4.9972497715990345,
      "all_switches_per_1000_ci_high": 5.520175670538373
    }
  ]
}
